A mere 60 days in the past when Morgan Rogers stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed while Unai Emery berated him for not reading a penetrating pass. During that period, as the club endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear if his performances were a symptom or the reason for the side's broader struggles.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
In the latest match, in contrast, the touchline reaction was entirely much more joyous. As Rogers swept in his second strike to restore the lead for Villa, Emery ripped off his jacket, opened his arms and roared. The Birmingham club marched on to ten wins in a row , after failing to win any of their first six fixtures, find themselves just three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Hopefuls?
It remains a particularly tough proposition to address. Past precedent, the perceived status of the club, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, their performances haven't been completely commanding during this run, while the victories have stacked up.
As per Opta, in only two games has the side had an xG significantly higher than the other team. For a side which has just won 10 in a row, Villa look curiously susceptible – but at the moment the margins are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic appears to be to trade blows with an opponent and then rely on Rogers to bail them out with two precise efforts. It happened against Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and once more when facing United.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from a brilliant finish, arced just inside the goal frame from a wide position. For his second acted as a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Is It Sustainable?
Common sense dictates no. Against United, Manchester United registered more efforts and more efforts on goal. Villa have secured their last eight victories by a single goal. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge Villa have to face as the season progresses. Their key man, in all likelihood, will not continue to thrashing the ball past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Maybe there exists an alternative path where, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs might still find their top level.
- The centre-forward might resume finding the net regularly.
- The attacking talent could transform into the force he resembled in Germany.
- The defensive duo are due to return from injury, strengthening a periodically leaky backline.
Maybe within that lies the potential of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt back in October, nobody thought the midfielder now would be spearheading a championship pursuit and appearing as a crucial player for the national team.
This remarkable period should be enjoyed exactly since it feels so unlikely. As the match-winner stood in front of the home supporters after the match conducting the cheers, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. These spells are rare in football and should be relished.
